The Futility of Emotional Statecraft and the Lessons from Regional Instability

By Chris Magezi,

Director Information UPDF Land Forces/CLF/SPASO.

You wake up one morning pandering to emotions in matters of statecraft. It is a waste of time. The state is impersonal. What’s more, trying to put a face or an image to it is one of the most futile and frustrating experiences. Your age, especially above 18, gender, religion, or ethnicity is inconsequential in the broader scheme of things.

The state is entitled and will legitimately clamp on unlawful transgressions if they threaten the peace, property, and business of other citizens. It is the most feasible approach for any competent state worth its name. Nonetheless, by correctly managing internal contradictions, Ugandans will eventually get the desirous state they deserve: wealthier, fool-proof accountability systems, service-driven, and one that effectively fights social ills like corruption.

Otherwise, “peaceful demonstrations” are the ultimate red herring fallacy of our times with standard outcomes: general social unrest and a retarded economy. Here is a case in point: what started off as “peaceful protests” by Gen Z’s in Kenya over unpopular tax hikes has several weeks later rapidly descended into widespread political chaos, deaths, and incremental revenue losses of close to USD 46m (over UGX 171b). Investor confidence is at an all-time low with capital flight feared if the situation does not improve soon.

Further afield, Libyan millennials under the urging and backing of foreign actors responded to their “moral duty” to fight Muammar Gaddafi, eventually killing him in October 2011. In the end, the millennials reaped a spectacularly failed state; the most lucrative Libyan economy was auctioned off; and the ensuing political quagmire saw no end in sight more than a decade later. There are other examples. Uganda cannot afford to follow similar pathways.