By David Mwanje
The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) released a candid update, painting a picture of a global coffee market in flux. Robusta FAQ prices have slipped to UGX 10,000-11,000 per kilogram, down from recent highs, while Robusta Kiboko lingers at UGX 5,000-5,500. Arabica parchment and Drugar clean coffee are faring slightly better, trading at UGX 14,000-15,000 and UGX 14,000, respectively. Yet, behind these numbers lies a story of resilience, global market dynamics, and a call for farmers to hold steady.
The decline, as Minister Frank K. Tumwebaze explains, is not a local failing but a ripple from global forces. Coffee, a commodity traded on major exchanges like the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York for Arabica and the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) for Robusta, dances to the tune of futures contracts agreements locking in prices for future deliveries. These contracts shield producers from wild price swings but can’t fully insulate against market shifts. “The decline in coffee prices is driven by global market forces, not government policy,” Tumwebaze assures, pointing to factors like improved harvests in Brazil, a coffee powerhouse expecting a 0.5% production bump to 65 million bags in 2025/26, and a robusta surge in Vietnam, projected to hit 31 million bags. This oversupply has flooded the market, pushing prices down.
Currency fluctuations, particularly the US dollar’s volatility, add another layer of complexity, squeezing export profitability. Meanwhile, global coffee production is set to reach a record 178.7 million 60kg bags in 2025/26, outpacing consumption at 169.4 million bags, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s December 2024 report. Market speculation, with traders betting on price movements, has further fueled volatility, with ICE Coffee Futures hitting a low in mid-June 2025.
Yet, Uganda’s coffee sector remains a bright spot. The country exported 7.43 million bags worth $2.09 billion from June 2024 to May 2025—a 22% increase in volume and 93.6% in value compared to the previous year. “Our coffee industry is on track, and we’re now the third-ranked quality coffee producer globally,” Tumwebaze beams, citing the Coffee Quality Institute.
Looking ahead, there’s a glimmer of hope. With Brazil’s peak harvest wrapping up in early July and robusta seasons in India and Vietnam winding down by mid-July, farmgate prices could nudge upward from mid-July to late August. Tumwebaze urges farmers to stay the course, emphasizing smarter farming to counter the dip. “I call on farmers to plant more coffee, use improved seedlings, and embrace better harvesting and processing to keep our coffee competitive,” he says. Investments in irrigation and fertilizers are already lowering production costs, boosting yields, and cushioning farmers against market swings.
The minister’s message is clear price fluctuations, while unsettling, are part of coffee’s global rhythm. Over the past decade, export prices have swung between USD 1.53 and USD 3.11 per kilogram, with 2020/21 marking the lowest point. Today’s dip, though sharp, isn’t a death knock.
Uganda’s coffee, prized for its quality, holds a strong position. By focusing on quality and efficiency, farmers can weather the storm. “This is a moment to stay calm and double down on quality,” Tumwebaze advises, rallying farmers to maintain Uganda’s edge in a crowded market. As global supply chains stabilize and demand holds, the country’s coffee story rooted in resilience and rich beans continues to brew hope.
