By Samuel Ssenono
Pressure is building in the global aviation fuel market, with airlines warning of tightening Jet A-1 supply and rising ATF costs threatening network stability across key regions.
The Federation of Indian Airlines has written to civil aviation authorities warning that current pricing and supply conditions are making airline operations increasingly difficult to sustain. Carriers say both domestic and international networks are under strain, with the risk of service cuts or shutdowns if the situation persists.
Major operators including Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet have flagged the impact of high fuel costs and airspace disruptions, pointing to mounting financial pressure across the sector.
At the global level, IATA says the risk of supply disruption is already emerging.
“The IEA’s assessment of potential jet fuel shortages is sobering. We have also estimated that by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel. This is already happening in parts of Asia… it’s important that authorities have well-communicated and well-coordinated plans in place in case rationing becomes necessary, including for slot relief,” said Director General Willie Walsh.
Jet fuel remains the largest variable cost for airlines, often accounting for a significant share of operating expenses, directly affecting route economics and network planning.
Despite the global outlook, Uganda’s supply position remains within operational margins, according to the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC).
UNOC indicates that as of April 20, 2026, the country had 32 million litres of Jet A-1 in stock, equivalent to 53 days of cover. Additional confirmed shipments of 23 million litres are scheduled between May and June through Mombasa and Tanzanian port corridors, extending cover by a further 37 days.
The supply chain is being supported by multiple entry routes, with UNOC maintaining a steady import programme to sustain fuel availability for aviation operations.
Jet fuel also featured prominently at the Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi, where President Yoweri Museveni linked fuel costs directly to aviation-driven sectors.
“What I was worried about was jet fuel, because jet fuel is not only just for travel, it is for tourism. If the cost of jet fuel is very expensive, tourists will not come. It is also for air exports. The governments of Kenya and Uganda must keep a voice in the pipeline, mainly because of the jet fuel,” Museveni said.
