Boeing forecasts 1,165 new aircraft for African airlines, with intra-African and Middle East traffic expected to drive much of the growth.
By Samuel Ssenono
Africa will need nearly 1,200 new commercial aircraft over the next two decades as passenger traffic grows at one of the fastest rates in the world, according to Boeing’s 2026 Commercial Market Outlook.
The manufacturer forecasts that Africa’s commercial jet fleet will rise from 755 aircraft in 2025 to 1,625 by 2045, while passenger traffic will grow by an average of 5.8 per cent annually.
The expansion will be driven largely by growing intra-African networks, stronger connections with the Middle East and the replacement of ageing aircraft.
Of the 1,165 new aircraft expected to be delivered between 2026 and 2045, 870 will be single-aisle jets, accounting for nearly 75 per cent of demand. Boeing also forecasts deliveries of 240 widebody aircraft, 40 regional jets and 15 freighters.
Intra-African traffic to more than triple
Some of the strongest growth is expected within Africa itself.
Boeing forecasts intra-African passenger traffic will grow by 6.5 per cent annually, with revenue passenger kilometres rising from 82.4 billion in 2025 to 288.1 billion by 2045. That would make the market about three-and-a-half times its current size.
The growth reflects increasing demand for direct connections between African cities, despite longstanding challenges including restrictive air service agreements, high operating costs and fragmented markets.
Traffic between Africa and the Middle East is expected to grow even faster at 7.1 per cent annually, rising from 79.6 billion revenue passenger kilometres to 311.8 billion by 2045.
Europe will remain Africa’s largest international passenger market. Traffic between Africa and Europe is forecast to rise from 212.8 billion revenue passenger kilometres in 2025 to 415.1 billion in 2045.
Single-aisle aircraft to dominate
Single-aisle aircraft will form the backbone of Africa’s future fleet as airlines expand domestic, regional and short-haul international services.
The continent’s single-aisle fleet is forecast to increase from 400 aircraft in 2025 to 1,125 by 2045.
Widebody aircraft will also become increasingly important as African carriers expand long-haul networks and develop stronger hubs.
Africa’s widebody fleet is expected to more than double from 135 aircraft to 315, with Boeing forecasting deliveries of 240 new widebody jets during the period.
The dedicated freighter fleet is also expected to expand from 60 to 150 aircraft, supported by growth in logistics, e-commerce and demand for air transport of high-value and time-sensitive exports.
Regional jets, however, are forecast to decline sharply, from 160 aircraft today to just 35 by 2045.
Africa heading for major fleet renewal
The forecast points not only to a bigger African fleet, but also a much newer one.
Boeing estimates that fewer than 125 of the 755 commercial aircraft currently operating in Africa will remain in service by 2045.
By then, about 92 per cent of the continent’s commercial fleet is expected to consist of newer-technology aircraft.
For African airlines, newer aircraft offer improved fuel efficiency, longer range and lower maintenance requirements. The transition, however, will require airlines to secure substantial financing for aircraft purchases and leases.
$140 billion aviation services market
The expansion of Africa’s fleet will also create a major market for aircraft maintenance, training and other aviation services.
Boeing forecasts $140 billion in aviation services demand between 2026 and 2045, growing at about 4.6 per cent annually.
Maintenance will account for the largest share at approximately $90 billion, while digital services are forecast at $45 billion and training and pilot services at $5 billion.
The figures highlight the need for Africa to expand its own maintenance, repair and overhaul capacity.
Limited local maintenance capability currently forces some African airlines to send aircraft overseas for major maintenance, increasing costs and keeping aircraft out of service for longer periods.
As the fleet grows, investment in local maintenance facilities, technical training and aftermarket infrastructure will become increasingly important.
Africa will need 75,000 aviation professionals
Aircraft and infrastructure will only be part of the requirement.
Boeing forecasts that Africa will need 75,000 new aviation professionals over the next 20 years.
This includes 22,000 pilots, 25,000 technicians and 28,000 cabin crew, equivalent to an average of about 3,750 new aviation professionals every year.
About 77 per cent of the new pilots are expected to serve regional networks, while 23 per cent will be required for global operations.
The forecast puts pressure on African governments, airlines and aviation training institutions to expand pilot and technical training capacity as aircraft numbers increase.
“Africa’s aviation market is entering a period of sustained growth driven by improving connectivity, expanding intraregional travel and deeper economic ties across the continent and with key global markets,” Boeing Managing Director of Commercial Marketing Shahab Matin said.
Matin said meeting the expected demand would require more than aircraft, with investment needed in fleet modernisation, capacity, digital solutions, workforce development and affordable access to air travel.
Opportunity for African aviation
The forecast presents a major opportunity for African airlines, but also highlights the scale of investment required to support that growth.
Airlines will need aircraft, but countries will also need trained pilots and engineers, stronger airports, maintenance facilities and improved connections between African markets.
If Boeing’s projections materialise, Africa will enter 2045 with 1,625 commercial aircraft compared with 755 today. Its widebody fleet will have more than doubled, its single-aisle fleet will have almost tripled and intra-African passenger traffic will be more than three times its current size.
The challenge for the continent will be ensuring that aviation infrastructure, skills and airline capacity grow fast enough to keep pace with the expected demand.
